Being a brand-new race track, the teams’ simulation capabilities take centre stage.

Looking very carefully at this season, one pattern stands out: Mercedes quite often are the first to reach the limit.

Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren tend to be a little further behind initially, but once the valuable FP1 and FP2 data is analysed and fed back into the cars, McLaren often becomes the team to beat, with heavily revised and optimised harvesting and deployment strategies.

McLaren’s car is slightly draggy this season, but that should not be a major problem at Madring. The chassis has a somewhat limited front end, so the main area of improvement is expected to be finding the right mechanical grip.

The new asphalt also appears likely to offer more grip than usual, which could bring Max and Red Bull much closer to the front. Apparently, Max has even spent extra hours in the simulator preparing for the race.

Many experts expect multiple crashes and interruptions during practice and the race, given the layout and lack of safety areas. In fact, on many key corners, the concrete walls effectively define the track limits, while the kerbs are completely open to aggressive attacks.

With such a cocktail of opportunities for mistakes, it is almost inevitable that someone will get it spectacularly wrong — and in trying to become a Hero, end up a Zero at Madring.

Interesting days ahead… 🏎️🇪🇸

After the heavy impact on Lap 2 at Monza just days ago, Ferrari have decided to play it safe and use one of the previous engine specifications at Madring.

On a brand-new track, every team will be trying to maximise track time. Any issue could cost dearly because every lap is a valuable opportunity to correlate simulator, wind-tunnel and chassis data and optimise the cars ahead of qualifying. With the track layout also expected to produce multiple interruptions, losing any preparation time could be particularly costly.

Ferrari’s official position is that Leclerc’s updated Monza Power Unit has been inspected, declared OK and will definitely be used again later in the season. In other words, all is good!

But is it? Will Hamilton’s updated Power Unit also sit out Madring?

Of course not.

So, most probably, the situation is more complicated than we are being told, and Ferrari are simply trying to limit the damage on Leclerc’s side.

Madring looks like a track where chassis performance and cornering speed will be more important than outright power. That makes the Ferrari team-mate battle particularly interesting to watch closely.

The question is: will Leclerc’s forced engine choice cost him anything against Hamilton?

When we analyse data from the two Mercedes drivers, one clear difference stands out: Kimi Antonelli carries higher minimum speed through slow-speed corners and short, fast transitions between consecutive corners.

George Russell, by contrast, prefers wider racing lines and generally needs more time to rotate the car towards the apex.

At Madring, that driving style may not be ideal — very similar to Miami, and we all remember how difficult that race was for George.

There is also something very important about the current Energy Formula that the Mercedes teammates reveal. With so much emphasis on straight-line performance, it rewards drivers who can create the shortest possible racing line — minimising time spent in corners while maximising to stretch each of the straight-line sections as much as possible.

At this stage of their careers, it is obvious that Kimi is more adaptable than George. So it will be fascinating to see how the two Mercedes drivers respond to the unknowns of a completely new track like Madring. 🏎️⚔️

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Tomorrow, best. 🏎️